Q1 2026 delivers the best take-up figure ever recorded for an Italian logistics market opening quarter: nearly 860,000 sqm of occupied space, up 78% year-on-year. The sector accelerates, but investors are exercising growing selectivity.
Q1 2026 delivered an unprecedented opening-quarter figure for the Italian logistics real estate market: approximately 860,000 sqm of space leased or occupied, up 78% year-on-year compared to the same period in 2025. This is according to JLL's analysis, corroborated in substance by Dils and other sector operators, who all identify this result as the highest take-up level ever recorded for a first quarter.
Third-party logistics operators (3PLs) were absolutely central to the result: according to JLL, they accounted for over 85% of total quarterly absorption. Four large transactions — two of which individually exceeded 100,000 sqm — alone generated approximately 350,000 sqm of newly occupied space. A clear signal of how the expansionary strategies of major operators are reshaping demand in the sector.
Geographically, Greater Milan confirmed its status as the national reference market, concentrating nearly half of the quarter's absorbed volumes. The main nodes along the Po Valley axis — including the provinces of Novara, Brescia and Verona — also recorded sustained demand, consistent with occupiers' growing focus on locations offering strong infrastructure connectivity, motorway access and qualified labour pools.
On the supply side, the quarter saw the completion of over 300,000 sqm of new space, more than 30% of which was speculative — built without a pre-let already signed, betting on future demand. This is a meaningful confidence indicator: developers are bringing product to market ahead of confirmed demand. This dynamic contributed to a decline in the national vacancy rate, now at around 5%.
The investment picture tells a different story, marked by growing selectivity. According to JLL, capital flowing into the logistics sector totalled approximately €430 million, equal to 12% of the overall Italian commercial real estate market volume for the quarter, down around 30% from Q1 2025 — an exceptional period characterised by a significant accumulation of portfolio transactions that did not repeat. Deals closed in Q1 2026 were predominantly mid-to-small in size and low-risk in profile: core assets represented 40% of volumes, while owner-occupier acquisitions accounted for 30%.
Prime rents remain stable in the most sought-after locations, and prime yields are confirmed at 5.3%, a level signalling still-rational risk pricing despite a macroeconomic environment made more uncertain by construction cost volatility and international tariff pressures. The outlook for the coming months remains positive, with a pipeline of transactions in advanced negotiation suggesting continued growth in the occupier market.