Istat's price index shows Italian home prices accelerating to +5.2% year-on-year in Q1 2026. Behind the headline figure, new and existing homes are moving in almost opposite directions.
+5.2% year-on-year. That's the acceleration in Italian home prices certified by Istat's IPAB index for Q1 2026, up sharply from +4.0% at the end of 2025. The headline number, though, tells only half the story.
New-build homes rose 6.7% annually - the sharpest rebound in recent quarters - but slipped 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, a volatility that reflects supply scarcity more than any real shift in trend. Existing homes show a steadier path: +4.8% annually, a slight deceleration from +5.0%, but a solid +1.5% quarterly gain that is effectively the only real driver of the index's quarterly growth. The existing-home segment now accounts for 86.91% of the index's weight, up from 82.40% in 2025 - confirmation that the "used" market has become the true center of gravity of Italian residential real estate.
Transaction data completes the picture: nearly 180,000 homes changed hands nationally in Q1 - 179,654, to be precise - up 4.4% year-on-year, a sharp acceleration from +0.4% in the prior quarter. Italy's eight largest cities outperformed the national average with +6.1% combined growth, reversing two years of urban underperformance.
The simultaneous rise in both prices and volumes matters: it signals demand-driven rather than speculative growth. Construction output also confirmed the positive momentum, with the seasonally adjusted index up 0.3% month-on-month in April 2026.
Geographically, Turin leads major-city growth in transactions, while Milan follows its own logic: 70.7% of sales are primary residences, and new construction accounts for 11.6% of activity, the highest share among Italy's large cities. One notable exception: Florence is the only major city to see transactions decline, weighed down by already-high prices and housing supply eroded by short-term rental pressure - a factor flagged as significant by more than 65% of agencies surveyed across central and southern Italy.
It's worth noting a methodological point often overlooked: the IPAB index measures like-for-like price changes, not average transaction values - meaning this acceleration reflects genuine price growth, not simply a shift toward pricier properties. Mortgage financing remains supportive too: 47.8% of Q1 transactions were mortgage-financed, even as new mortgage rates move in a less straightforward direction than one might expect.