OMI data confirms a solid Q1 2026: nearly 180,000 residential transactions, up 4.4% year-on-year. Prices on existing homes keep rising, and average mortgage amounts hit a ten-year high.
Italy's residential market opened 2026 with a solid set of figures. According to ISTAT data processed by the Real Estate Market Observatory (OMI), nearly 180,000 homes changed hands in Q1 2026, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. Growth was positive across all geographic areas: both the North West and the South led at +5.1%, while non-capital municipalities outpaced provincial capitals (+4.6% versus +4.1%).
The breadth of recovery is notable. The South matching the North West's pace reflects a demand that, where prices remain relatively accessible, is finding one of its last viable entry points for middle-income households priced out of Centre-North markets.
On pricing, ISTAT-OMI data for Q4 2025 showed residential prices up 4.1% year-on-year, with existing homes recording a sharper +5.2%. Over the full year 2025, prices rose +4% — nearly twice the growth in average household disposable income, progressively eroding affordability.
New construction deserves a separate note. Transactions for newly built homes grew by 14.6% in Q1 2026, three times the overall market rate. A significant share of this demand is driven by the regulatory pressure of EU Directive EPBD IV on building energy performance: with increasingly stringent efficiency standards ahead, buyers are opting for new stock to avoid the renovation obligations that will apply to low-rated existing buildings. Italy is already late on transposing the directive — the European Commission opened an infringement procedure in March 2026.
Credit conditions were the primary catalyst for the broader recovery. Following four ECB rate cuts between January 2025 and February 2026, mortgage demand rebounded sharply: new mortgages originated in the first three quarters of 2025 reached approximately €35.9 billion, up 30.8% year-on-year, according to Nomisma. In Q1 2026, the average loan amount tracked online by MutuiSupermarket hit its highest level in ten years — reflecting both renewed demand and the structural upward drift in prices.
For investors, the directional signals are clear: peripheral urban areas and well-connected mid-sized towns are gaining relevance as prime-centre valuations have already absorbed much of the recent appreciation. The South offers interesting fundamentals for medium-term buyers. Properties in low energy classes carry increasing regulatory risk as the 2030 and 2035 European efficiency targets approach. The market is not in a speculative phase — it remains selective, quality-driven, and structurally supported.