Italian home sales keep growing, but beneath the surface the market is polarizing: Milan, Rome and Naples hold firm while Turin and Palermo show signs of value erosion. Nomisma forecasts a physiological stabilization through 2028, with annual transactions settling just above 780,000.
The Italian residential market closes the first half of 2026 with a picture more nuanced than aggregate figures suggest. According to the Fimaa-Confcommercio Observatory, full-year transactions are expected to exceed 750,000 units, up 4.5%, with prices rising around 3.9%. In the first quarter, Revenue Agency data show almost 180,000 transactions, up 4.4% year-on-year, with similar contributions from provincial capitals (+4.1%) and smaller municipalities (+4.6%).
Beneath these numbers, a geographic polarization is consolidating. Nomisma's 1st Real Estate Observatory frames 2026-2028 as a phase of contained transaction growth — not a sharp slowdown, but a physiological stabilization after years of strong expansion. Forecasts point to 783,000 transactions in 2026 (+1.8% versus 2025), 780,000 in 2027 and 782,000 in 2028: figures describing a mature market, no longer in a catch-up phase.
The territorial breakdown reveals the sharpest differences. "Strong" markets — Milan, central Rome, Naples — keep prices stable or slightly rising, sustained by demand favoring quality stock and prime locations. In Milan, the average negotiated discount has narrowed to 3.05%, while the median transacted size has fallen from 100 to 78 square meters, signaling demand shifting toward smaller, more affordable units. Rome holds a stable average discount of 5.62%, while Naples — after a 16.6% post-pandemic recovery — now shows signs of consolidation, with a median value around €2,250 per square meter.
"Weaker" markets, including Turin and Palermo, show signs of real value erosion, in a context where supply still exceeds effective demand. Consistent with this, Idealista data for Q1 2026 show a rising share of listings undergoing downward price corrections in major cities — particularly Milan, Florence and Bologna. Even in premium markets, historically more resilient, demand shows some fatigue: not a collapse, but reduced momentum, consistent with still-elevated rates and years of prices outpacing income growth.
On the credit side, the share of purchases financed via mortgage has returned to nearly 47.8%, while the average rate on first installments stands around 3.62%: more is being bought, but at a higher cost of credit than a year ago — an equilibrium demanding greater selectivity from buyers and more sophisticated analysis from advisors.
The picture, in short, is not one of a market slowing down, but one becoming more discriminating. Aggregate growth conceals very different trajectories depending on city, neighborhood and property type — heterogeneity set, according to sector forecasts, to consolidate over the next three years.
This heterogeneity carries practical implications. For sellers in Milan or central Rome, the current market still rewards patience: demand remains solid and downward price pressure stays limited. For sellers in Turin or Palermo, the dynamic is reversed — longer selling times and wider negotiating margins call for more realistic price expectations from the outset. For buyers, the shrinking median unit size in Milan reflects demand adapting to available budgets rather than original preferences, a signal worth monitoring in other high-pressure housing markets too.
A cross-cutting variable remains stock quality. Even within the strongest markets, energy-efficient properties continue to command meaningful value premiums over the rest of the stock, while older buildings struggle to hold asking prices — an effect that compounds, and in some cases overlaps, the geographic polarization described above.