In the first nine months of 2026 Italian logistics absorbed 2.4 million sq m and attracted about €2 billion of investment. With the ECB on hold but ready to hike and the 10-year BTP at 4.49%, the premium on Milan's prime yield has shrunk to about 70 basis points.
Between January and September the Italian logistics market absorbed about 2.4 million sq m, already more than in the whole of 2025. JLL and Savills agree on the volume and the record; CBRE, using a different scope, counts 2.3 million. Investment reached about €2 billion, up 60% to 66% depending on the source. Third-party logistics operators account for roughly six tenths of demand, and according to JLL the average deal size has risen from 19,000 sq m in 2022-2025 to about 24,000.
On the occupier side the picture is solid. On the capital side the tone has changed.
What the ECB said
On 29 October the ECB held the deposit rate at 2.50% after hikes in June and September. Christine Lagarde said the council had discussed a further increase and postponed it because financing costs had already risen since September; if conditions stay as they are, she added, the direction for December is fairly clear. According to ANSA, markets price about an 80% chance of a hike to 2.75%.
For property, though, long-term rates matter more. The 10-year BTP closed the day at 4.49%.
Seventy basis points
Savills puts the prime net yield for grade A logistics at 5.20% in Milan and 5.50% in the other main locations: Rome, Bologna, Bergamo-Brescia and Pavia-Piacenza. The Milan figure is five basis points lower than a year ago. Against the 10-year bond, the property risk premium on the country's best logistics product is about 70 basis points, thin for an asset less liquid than a government bond and carrying management, re-letting and obsolescence costs. Savills itself expects yields to decompress in the coming months because of the macroeconomic backdrop.
Rents have to do the work
To a first approximation, the value of an income-producing asset is rent divided by yield. Prime rent in Milan is €73 per sq m a year, up 4% on twelve months ago. If it grows another 4% and the yield rises 25 basis points to 5.45%, value barely moves, losing less than 1%. With 50 basis points, to 5.70%, the same rental growth is no longer enough and value falls by about 5%.
For buyers of the past two years at yields close to 5%, value now depends more on rents than on the investment market. Leverage has stopped helping too: with Euribor reflecting two hikes and bank margins on top, the cost of debt has moved close to the asset's net yield.
Where rents can rise
The conditions for rental growth exist, but not everywhere. According to Colliers, 95% of third-quarter take-up involved grade A buildings certified at least LEED Gold or BREEAM Very Good. Savills reports falling vacancy in prime locations and still high availability in some secondary ones. New supply is substantial: more than 2 million sq m is due for completion by 2027, and a quarter of this year's take-up went to speculative schemes.
The most likely outcome is divergence. In the Milan, Verona and Pavia-Piacenza clusters, which together account for about half of demand, rents have room to absorb part of the decompression. In secondary markets, where new warehouses meet shallower demand, yields can rise without rents compensating. Savills counts 19 deals by Italian investors, mostly owner-occupier purchases, a group that values a warehouse on cost of use and location rather than yield.
Two measures moving apart
Logistics ends the first nine months of 2026 with occupier demand at a record and a premium over government bonds below one point. In the coming quarters values will depend on which moves faster: rents in the best locations or the long-term cost of money.