Scenari Immobiliari expects Italian real estate turnover to grow 8.7% in 2026 and 9.8% in 2027. Second-quarter Omi data show flat volumes and credit becoming more expensive again. A comparison of the two readings and of the factors that could reconcile them.
At its 34th Forum in Rapallo on 18 September, Scenari Immobiliari presented its European Outlook 2027 with expansionary numbers for Italy: real estate turnover rising from €162.7 billion in 2025 to €194.1 billion in 2027, up 8.7% this year and 9.8% next. Italy would rank second in Europe for growth, behind Spain, after a record first half for institutional investment above €7 billion.
Eight days earlier the Revenue Agency had released its Omi statistics for the second quarter. They tell a different story.
What the data show
Between April and June, 201,596 homes changed hands, 0.1% more than a year earlier. Milan recorded 6,492 transactions against 6,491. One unit apart.
The first quarter had stopped at 179,655, so the half-year total barely exceeds 381,000. Over the same months residential leasing grew 3.1%, and 3.7% in high-pressure housing markets: demand is shifting from ownership to renting.
A year ago the same forecaster expected 800,000 home sales in 2026. Reaching that figure would require a second half above 418,000, about 10% more than the first. Seasonality helps, since the fourth quarter is usually the strongest. A jump of that size while credit gets dearer is still a hypothesis to test, not a starting point.
The variable last year's estimates did not include
The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points in June and again on 10 September, taking the deposit rate to 2.50% from 16 September. Italian inflation reached 3.3% in August, a three-year high driven by energy. According to ABI, the average rate on new home loans stood at 3.56% in August.
Fixed-rate mortgages track swap rates more than Frankfurt's decisions, which softens the immediate impact. Variable-rate loans absorb the tightening within weeks.
Three ways turnover can grow without more sales
Price is the first. Scenari projects its residential price index rising from 110.8 in 2025 to 121 in 2027, above 4% a year. Nomisma's spring forecast pointed to a nominal increase of 0.9% for 2026. The gap is wide and largely methodological.
Mix is the second. According to the Agency, new-build sales rose 15.6% year on year, and new homes carry a much higher average price, so a shift in mix lifts average transaction value even at flat volumes. There is a discrepancy, though. An Abitare Co. elaboration of the same Omi data, reported by Idealista, cites 12,902 new units and growth of 30.8%. The figures may cover different perimeters. Until they are reconciled, the mix effect is a direction rather than a measurement.
Non-residential is the third: shops and workshops +5.7% in the quarter, storage and garages +5.2%, commercial offices +4.7%.
What we do not yet know
Rising turnover with flat volumes is possible if prices, mix and non-residential all push the same way. Each has its own fragility. With inflation at 3.3%, real prices grow far less than nominal ones. New-build supply depends on projects launched years ago under different cost and rate conditions. Institutional investment is sensitive to the spread between prime yields and debt costs, which tighter policy tends to compress.
A less reassuring hypothesis also fits the data: buyers may have brought decisions forward ahead of the hikes, with the slowdown appearing only in year-end figures. The numbers available today cannot separate the two explanations.
Third-quarter Omi data, usually published in December, will be the first to cover a period entirely after the second hike. Until then the Rapallo forecasts are a reference scenario with a strong implicit condition: that credit does not become the bottleneck of a market where demand for ownership is slowing and demand for renting is growing.