Without new legislation, from 1 January 2027 the tax credit for renovating a main residence falls from 50% to 36%. The government, which brings its budget framework to Cabinet today, is weighing a 65% Ecobonus for energy works. What this uncertainty means for households, builders and resale values.
Today the Cabinet reviews the Public Finance Planning Document, the first formal step towards the 2027 budget law, whose bill is expected by 20 October. On housing, so far, there are hypotheses. No text.
The schedule already in law is clear. The 2025 budget set a path of declining tax credits for building works, and the 2026 budget merely postponed it by a year. Throughout 2026, renovation and energy-efficiency credits are worth 50% on a main residence, for owners or holders of a real right, and 36% on other properties, up to €96,000 per unit. From 1 January 2027, unless amended, the rates fall to 36% and 30%. The furniture bonus, with no extension, ends this year.
Three steps, not one
2027 is only the first. From 2028 to 2033 current law sets a single 30% rate for all homes, with the cap halved to €48,000. Expressed as the maximum credit on a main residence: €48,000 for spending paid in 2026, €34,560 in 2027, €14,400 from 2028.
For small jobs the gap is noticeable. For a full apartment renovation it changes the economics.
Payment date matters, not the works schedule. Individuals are taxed on a cash basis, so spending paid by 31 December 2026 keeps the full rate even if works continue into the next year: on €50,000 for a main residence, the 2026-2027 difference is about €7,000 of credit spread over ten years. Higher earners also face the 2025 cap on total deductible expenses: €14,000 above €75,000 of income and €8,000 above €100,000, adjusted for dependent children.
What is on the table
According to Corriere della Sera and Il Sole 24 Ore, the government is weighing two moves: keeping the 50% renovation credit on main residences in 2027, and a stronger 65% Ecobonus for a closed list of works on main residences, including windows, heat pumps, hybrid systems, solar thermal, shading and external insulation. Other properties would get 36%. Funding would come from EU flexibility on energy spending, the same clause behind a €28 billion deviation request for 2027-2028, with a parliamentary vote expected on 13 October.
The list reflects demand. Enea data for 2025 show those categories absorbed about €3.6 billion of efficiency investment, led by windows.
What the numbers do not tell us
Caution is needed on several levels. Neither hypothesis has a defined scope or certified funding, and the sources reporting them describe them as open questions. Demand figures need care too: the widely cited 73% share of beneficiaries using the credit on a main residence, based on Finance Ministry data, counts taxpayers rather than amounts.
There is also a behavioural unknown, and it will matter most over the next three months. An announced cut usually pulls spending forward. An announced but unapproved 65% pushes part of demand the other way: anyone planning windows, insulation or a heat pump has a rational reason to wait. Which group prevails cannot be estimated today. If the budget keeps 50% without the 65%, those who waited lose little. If the 65% passes, waiting pays. If nothing passes, deferred demand meets a 36% rate, and some of it simply disappears.
Market effects
Builders face a crowded fourth quarter and an empty first quarter of 2027, a pattern already seen at the end of the Superbonus.
In housing the effect runs through the price of homes needing renovation. The value of a class G apartment embeds the cost of works net of the credit the buyer expects. A lower credit raises that net cost and widens the discount buyers demand, unless a selective Ecobonus offsets it on energy works. The budget will also set the price gap between efficient and inefficient homes, already central for banks and valuers since the Green Homes directive.
Distribution matters as well. The higher rates are reserved for owner-occupiers, so private investors and small landlords, who hold much of the rental stock, stay on the lowest step in every scenario.
The emerging picture
The regime taking shape for 2027 is more selective, more energy-focused and, in maximum credit terms, steadily less generous. The only certain date is 31 December 2026. Until the bill reaches Parliament, anyone planning works or purchases has one solid reference in current law, which is also the worst case: every option under discussion could only improve the numbers.